Last review and update: Novermber 28, 2020.
A short summary.
The basic reproduction rate (R0) and the effective reproduction rate (R-effective) are another two concepts that are seriously flawed.
Many are incapable to understand and to respect hygiene and other prevention measures.
Top-down measures can hardly control the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, but literacy of the population can.
The seriously flawed “science” of epidemiology.
Another two concepts of epidemiology that are seriously flawed.
Epidemiology turned out to be a “fake science” to a large degree. Indeed, too many of epidemiology’s fondamental concepts are flawed.
The basic reproduction rate (R0) and the effective reproduction rate (R-effective) are another two concepts that are seriously flawed.
The terms “reproduction rate”, “reproductive number” are used to define the same. What do they mean?
Fine, 1993 (1):
Reproduction rates
If an infection is to persist, each infected individual must, on average, transmit that infection to at least one other individual. If this does not occur, the infection will disappear progressively from the population.This average number of actual infection transmissions per case is an extremely powerful concept, and has thus been discussed by many researchers. The fundamental statistic is one which was formulated originally by Macdonald, in the context of malaria studies, as the average number of secondary cases who contract an infection from a single primary case introduced into a totally susceptible population. He called this num the “basic case reproduction rate”, by analogy with the demographic concept of the intrinsic reproduction rate, the average number of potential progeny per individual if there were no constraints to fertility.
The table from Fine, 1993 (1), below, shows basic reproduction rates for common diseases.
Assigning single values to basic and effective reproductive rates is wrong.
As you can see from the table above, epidemiologists assign values to R0 and track R-effective for pathogens. However, the realities of the COVID-19 epidemic show that assigning single values to basic and effective reproductive rates is wrong.
The “reproduction rate” in humans depends on behavior and intelligence. In many households, SARS-CoV-2 reproduction rate is infinite.
Indeed, the “reproduction rate” in humans depend on behavior and intelligence. In many households, SARS-CoV-2 reproduction rate is infinite. It means that if one member of the household gets infected, all the others will get infected as well. Members of such households are incapable of implementing correct prevention measures.
For the same individuals, the reproduction rate of SARS-CoV-2 is diferent in different setting. For example at work, the reproductive rate is usually lower than in the household setting.
The reproductive rate for SARS-CoV-2 fluctuates from zero in some individuals to infinity in other individuals
A reproductive rate that fluctuates from zero in some individuals to infinity in other individuals is a reasonable explanation for the pattern of SARS-CoV-2 spread that we are observing.
The formula for the herd immunity threashold, H=1-1/R-effective, is a rare formula in epidemiology that seems to work. At least sometimes.
A rare formula in epidemiology that seems to work at least sometimes is the formula for calculating the herd immunity (H): H=1-1/R-effective. Indeed, if we use the R-effective actually observed during summer 2020 in a majority of countries, we seem to be able to predict the level of the “herd immunity” that slows the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
The R-effective actually observed was around 1.1. Let us put it into the formula for calculating the herd immunity threshold:
H=1-1/R-effective=1-1/1.1=0.09=9%.
Thus, after a point in time when approximately 9% of the population ghave gotten infected with SARS-CoV-2 and became “immunized through infection”, or rather “less susceptible after an infection”, the “Rapid Spread” phase should stop.
This is what we observed during the spring and summer 2020 in many geographical areas.
The New Neander’s Medical on June 7, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. Sweden and Belarus have identical epidemiological situations: the phase of a “slow spread” of COVID-19. Analysis: 1) after 10% of the population have gotten infected, the “rapid spread” stops, independent of lockdowns. 2) Swedish Summer COVID is also mild.
The New Neander’s Medical on July 27, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. “Slow spread“: 1.7-1.8 new daily cases per 100k of population. E.g.: Switzerland, Belgium, Belarus. “Rapid spread” or/and “widespread testing”: 20 new daily cases per 100k population. E.g.: the US. R-effective is around 1 everywhere.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 15, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. In the compact Singapore, the “rapid spread” has ended after 10% of the population, mostly “idiots”, some unlucky and front-workers got infected. The embarrassing “2nd wave” in Europe is explained by the spread in previously unaffected areas and illiteracy.
Herd immunity does not seem to kick in at the calculated treashold of 10%.
However, in autumn of 2020, many geographic areas, where a sufficient proportion, i.e. 10% or more, of the population had been immunized to SARS-CoV-2 through natural infection, entered another phase of exponential growth of new cases.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 7, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. There is an increase in daily number of cases in both Sweden and Belarus, with both countries now at 5 new daily cases by 100K of the population. Korea, Japan do much better with 0.17-0.3 new daily cases per 100k of the population. Are Europeans illiterate?
We may be overestimating the total number of the infected and recovered.
Earlier in 2020, it was estimated that the number of people who got infected was 7 to 10 times the number of confirmed reported cases.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 28, 2020:
COVID-19 severity, epidemiology. The number of seropositives for SARS-CoV-2 is 7 to 10 times the number of confirmed cases.
However, as testing became widespread, it gradually started detecting more and, at some point, most of the infections with SARS-CoV-2.
The New Neander’s Medical on July 22, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology: If testing is widespread, like in the US currently, the number of seropositives may be 3 times higher and not 10 times higher than the number of recorded sero- and PCR-positive people.
The New Neander’s Medical on November 21, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. As the number of cases increases worldwide, the mortality rate in all countries converges towards 1-3% range. That is a lot, given that a majority of infections are currently detected with widespread testing.
The New Neander’s Medical on November 16, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. There is a lot of testing in most of the countries. Test positivity rates differ from 10% in France and Spain, to 30% in Switzerland, Belgium, Ukraine. But mortality converges in all countries towards 2%(1-2%) which hints most of the cases are detected.
The New Neander’s Medical on November 3, 2020:
Anthropology: Switzerland needs to be downgraded to the bottom in “Prosperity” ranking. Utterly stupid population, incapable bureaucracy, crimes against humanity (against elderly). Swiss PCR positivity rate is 39.6%. In some areas, it is 60%, and hospitals have no available beds.
On October 29, 2020, Switzerland reported 22326 test and 8840 cases. PCR positivity rate: 8840/22326=39.6%. In some area, positivity rate is 60% and hospitals have no beds. R-effective is 1.22. 18% of the population will get infected before the rapid spread stops.
The herd immunity threshold of 10% of the population may still kick in. If so, in the US it will happen after 25-30 millions of reported SARS-CoV-2 infections.
The observations mentioned in the comments above suggests that most of the infections are currently detected. If so, the herd immunity threshold of 10% of the population may still kick in. In this case, in the US, the “Rapid Spread” phase should end when the total number of cases reaches 25 – 30 millions.
Ethnic Europeans are in a sad state of illiteracy.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 21, 2020:
COVID-19 Anthropology. France and most of the other nations with European population repeat the excessive “Rapid Spread” phase that was observed in the US a couple of months before. In 10 months, a large proportion of people LEARNED NOTHING about how to protect themselves. Sad.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 21, 2020:
The Czech Republic appears to be a rare well-governed country with European population. There is no self-sabotage, anti-COVID measures are reasonable. Yet, there is a huge delayed First Wave. Why? Should we postulate that top-down measures are NOT effective, but LITERACY is?
Literacy is a more effective way to avoid respiratory infections than vaccines.
Literacy is a more effective way to avoid respiratory infections than vaccines. Also, there is no risk to develop autoimmune conditions that are inherently linked to adaptive immunity.
The New Neander’s Medical on July 30, 2020:
Physiological literacy: There are ways to stimulate immune system and there are strict hygiene measures that can protect against respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Hygiene is enough to eradicate SARS-CoV-2. “Population literacy” is needed, not “population immunity”.
A snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic as of November 16, 2020: mortality, hospitalization rate, prevention and treatment.
The New Neander’s Medical on November 16, 2020:
Currently, there is so much testing, that almost ALL infected with SARS-CoV-2 are identified with PCR. The Effective Case fatality rate=The Effective Infection fatality rate =2%. The Effective CFR and IFR is what is observed.
The Effective CFR and IFR for COVID-19 are mostly explained by medical malpractice and by deliberate disinformation and sabotage. Medical bureaucracies in most of the countries still instruct SARS-CoV-2-positive to sit and to do nothing until COVID-19 becomes severe.
A good nutritional status and an immediate generic anti-viral and anti-bacterial treatment effectively stop COVID-19 from progressing into severe forms. Viral pneumonia is always a serious disease. 10% of PCR+ will develop serious disease and will be exposed to malpractice.
There are effective prevention measures, e.g. breathing exercises, avoiding hypothermia, some foods, vitamins and minerals, that prevent infection even if some SARS-CoV-2 lands on one’s mucosa. Good hygiene and habits will protect against other viruses, like Epstein-Barr (EBV) and others.
The way to fight the COVID-19 epidemic and all future epidemics is by keeping the effective transmission rate below 1. Not by lockdowns, but by a common effort of literate citizens. Any village, town, city can do it.
The future picture of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.
Though the “Rapid spread” phase may end when the number of reported cases reaches 10 to 20 percent of the population in a country, the slow spread will continue. Occasionally, there will be outbreaks. In many households, 100% of the members will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 sooner or later. Since the immunity to coronaviruses is not lasting, the same households will be infected again with new variants and with the same variant of SARS-CoV-2 for the second, third and following times. 100% of the members of such housholds will also be infected by all other widely circulating pathogens.
Intelligent people should practice anti-pathogen hygiene throughout their lifetime. It is not difficult. It should become a habit.
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