Last update and review: April 28, 2020.
Disinformation campaigns in the propaganda.
Increased COVID-19 severity and worst outcomes in people of African descent and in people of other non-European ethnicity is one of the many ongoing disinformation campaigns in the propaganda operation. For those who read and understand studies published on COVID-19, it is immediately clear that ethnicity is very unlikely to be an important risk factor in COVID-19. Indeed, only age and hypertension were reported as strong negative predictors of COVID-19 severity and poor outcomes.
The BMJ, a publishing company that “started 180 years ago as a medical journal”, seems to participate in the disinformation campaign by publishing dubious articles. For example, Brown et al., 2020 (1):
COVID-19 (Coronavirus) mortality disproportionately impacts BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) UK individuals, African Americans, Swedish Somalis,
A study shows ethnicity does not contribute to a higher risk of severe COVID-19.
We now have published data showing that ethnicity and skin color are unlikely to contribute to higher COVID-19-related risks.
In an article published on April 27, 2020, Baggett et al. (2), report on SARS-CoV-2 testing and symptoms in 408 residents of a Boston homeless shelter. All the residents were tested. Among them, 33.1% were African American and 18.6% were Hispanic or Latino. There were other ethnicities. We can, therefore, assess if there are higher risks for non-European ethnicities in this particular case.
“In the United States, 567 715 people were homeless on a single night in January 2019.”
Baggett et al., 2020 (2):
All individuals residing in the shelter (N = 408) underwent symptom assessment and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing. There were no known refusals. The mean age of the participants was 51.6 years; 71.6% of participants were men, 33.1% were black or African American, and 18.6% were Hispanic or Latino (Table). Among all participants, 1.0% had fever; 8.1% reported cough; 0.7% reported shortness of breath.
Baggett et al., 2020 (2), further report that 36% were PCR-postive for SARS-CoV-2 and that 87.8% were asymptomatic.
Baggett et al., 2020 (2):
A total of 147 participants (36.0%) had PCR test results positive for SARS-CoV-2. Men constituted 84.4% of individuals with PCR-positive results and 64.4% of individuals with PCR-negative results. Among individuals with PCR test results positive for SARS-CoV-2, cough (7.5%), shortness of breath (1.4%), and fever (0.7%) were all uncommon, and 87.8% were asymptomatic.
However, if we compare the frequency of different symptoms in all the residents, infected and non-infected with SARS-CoV-2, we can see that many of the non-infected had the same symptoms as infected. For instance, 7.5% of the 147 infected residents had cough. This is 11 persons. Among all the 408 residents, 8.1% had cough. This is 33 persons. 33-11=22. 22 of the non-infected with SARS-CoV-2 had cough. This makes 22/408=5%. So, 7.5% among the infected with SARS-CoV-2 had cough vs 5% among the non-infected. The difference may not be statistically significant if a proper statistical analysis is made.
The same proportion of PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2 among the ethnic groups.
If we now look at the frequency of positive test among different ethnicities, we can see that for each ethinic group, the proportion of those who tested postive for SARS-COV-2 is approximately the same as their proportion among the homeless shelter residents. See the table below.
For example, Black/African Americans were 33% among all the residents. Among those who tested PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2, the proportion of Black/African Americans is almost the same, 31.9%. The same is true for ALL other ethnicities.
It is of note that in this study, the socio-economic status of all the participants is the same. They are homeless.
The role of vitamin D deficiency as a risk factor for severe COVID-19.
The role of vitamin D deficiency as a risk factor for severe COVID-19 is also discussed a lot, both on social networks, “by the masses”, and “by scientists” and grassroots health educators.
The study by Baggett et al., 2020 (2), was done in Boston, in the first days of April:
Participants were adults aged at least 18 years residing in a large homeless shelter in Boston on April 2, 2020, and April 3, 2020.
The end of March and the first days of April are not the sunniest days in Boston. The sun UVB radiation during this period is minimal if any. Yet, almost 90% of the residents of a homeless shelter are asymptomatic. We can even say that everybody is asymptomatic given that those who tested positive do not have more symptoms than those who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.
Compare this to the general population of New York City where about 26% were symptomatic enough to require hospitalization.
If vitamin D status were important, Spaniards would do better than the residents of a homeless shelter in Boston in early April. But they did not.
Since there were so few symptomatic homeless shelter residents in the study by Baggett et al., 2020 (2), it is unlikely that many of them later died. Compare this to the 10% mortality among the general population of Spain, where the diet is usually excellent and there is a lot of sun and UVB during the year.
We can conclude that vitamin D deficiency may not be a particularly important contributor to the risk of severe COVID-19. If it were, the general population of Spain would do better than the residents of a homeless shelter in Boston in early April. But they did not.
Conclusions.
It is of course recommended to have an optimal vitamin D status. However, a good vitamin D status is unlikely to give a perfect protection against the risk of severe COVID-19.
Being hospitalized is also not that helpful. Too many hospitalized patients die. Both in France and in the New York City area, mortality among hospitalized patients is around 20%.
Hypertension, a strong independent risk factor is something that you can monitor and address. Incompetence of the medical doctors working in the hospital near you where you may have to be treated for COVID-19 is the strongest risk factor for a poor outcome.
You need to do your best to avoid symptomatic COVID-19. There is a number of steps that you can take. If you need help with this, do not hesitate to get in contact with us.
Selected references:
1. Brown et al., Rapid response to: Is ethnicity linked to incidence or outcomes of covid-19? BMJ 2020;369:m1548
2. Baggett TP, Keyes H, Sporn N, Gaeta JM. Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Residents of a Large Homeless Shelter in Boston. JAMA. Published online April 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6887
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