Last update and review: Novermber 1st, 2020.
A “mini-course” in Physiological Literacy on Epidemiology.
In this article, we have put together a “mini-course” in Physiological Literacy on Epidemiology. The course is based on the comments of our COVID-19 Task Force at different time points during the epidemic.
People and animals do NOT need to be “immune” to avoid getting infected. It is enough not to be “susceptible“.
The New Neander’s Medical on September 30, 2020.
Below, there is a figure from Fine, 1993 (1), in its original version and after we have edited it. Fine, 1993 (1), uses only “immune” in his model. In reality, there are also “non-susceptible”. A majority of the population in many countries in Europe was non-susceptible during the summer of 2020. That is why there were no spread of SARS-CoV-2.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 10, 2020:
Epidemiology is a branch of propaganda and a fake science to a degree. Many basic postulates are wrong. E.g., there are susceptible and unsusceptible individuals. Thus, above 80% of the population are unsusceptible to flu or SARS-CoV-2 viruses due to behavior, innate immunity,etc
Physiological Literacy on viral infections. You do not need to be “immune” to viruses to avoid getting infected. Your best protection is your behavior.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 10, 2020.
The New Neander’s Medical on October 10, 2020:
Your best protection is your behavior.
Physiological Literacy on viral infections. You do not need to be “immune” to viruses to avoid getting infected. Your best protection is your behavior. Also, if your respiratory microbiome contains Cornebacterium xerosis, a common one, you’ll be a lot less susceptible to viruses.
The New Neander’s Medical on September 26, 2020:
“Additionally, surfactin-like molecules are produced by a broad array of bacterial species: surfactin like Coryxin was recently found to be produced by Corynebacterium xerosis, a common member of the respiratory microbiome.” Analysis: Surfactin disrupts SARS-CoV infectivity.
A Test: Do we need “herd immunity” to salmonella, a food-born pathogen?
The New Neander’s Medical on September 30, 2020:
The article Gabor Erdosi recommends is from the Stalinist dystopia called the UK. The article is published in “vaccines” and contains disinformation. “Figure 1” is a piece of disinformation. A Test: Do we need “herd immunity” to salmonella, a food-born pathogen?
Only 6% get infected with flu viruses though nobody is “immune”.
The New Neander’s Medical on September 30, 2020:
People and animals do NOT need to be immune to avoid getting infected. They can be non-susceptible for a lot of other reasons. E.g., only 6% get infected with flu viruses though nobody is “immune”.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 5, 2020:
Epidemiology. COVID-19. Nobody is immune to the next year’s influenza viruses. But, in unvaccinated children, per 1000 person-years, only 88 out of 1412 cases of acute respiratory illness were caused by an influenza virus. That is 6%. Over 90% are NOT susceptible to flu viruses.
A Test: Do we need herd immunity against HIV?
The New Neander’s Medical on September 30, 2020:
Only individuals with certain behaviors(drug addicts, etc.) and some immunocompromised are susceptible to HIV. So, susceptibility to a virus is almost always behavior-driven. Behavior protects from viruses.
HIV should spread exponentially. But after 40 years or so, only drug addicts and male homosexuals are infected.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020:
Fake Science of epidemiology. HIV virus allegedly has R0=2.5. R0 is the basic reproductive number. HIV should spread exponentially. But after 40 years or so, only drug addicts and male homosexuals are infected. Only a small proportion of the populaiton is susceptible to HIV. 1/n
Only individuals with certain behaviors are susceptible to HIV.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020:
2/n The HIV virus is a good example to understand viruses and epidemics. Only individuals with certain behaviors(drug addicts, etc.) and some immunocompromised are susceptible to HIV. So, susceptibility to a virus is almost always behavior-driven. Behavior protects from viruses
Only individuals with certain behaviors (drug addicts, etc.) and some immunocompromised are susceptible to HIV.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020
HIV: Herd immunity is impossible because almost nobody is susceptible.
The New Neander’s Medical on September 30, 2020:
Anthropology: exposure to propaganda makes people confused. Herd immunity is not always necessary. It is probably pushed as a propaganda fabrication to promote vaccination. HIV: Herd immunity is impossible because almost nobody is susceptible.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020:
3/n Belarus is a very interesting example. The authoritarian president Lukashenko did not introduce any lockdown and “distancing” is limited. The masses became scared of the disease and modified their behavoir on their own. It was enough to drop the R-effective to 1.
At the beginning of the epidemic, the masses were not scared of the virus and they were careless as usual.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020:
4/n The mistake in Belarus and elsewhere was to miss the start of the epidemic. The masses were not scared of the virus and they were careless as usual during seasonal acute respiratory illness (ARI) epidemics. So, if you scare the masses in time, R-effective is never above 1.
Anthropology: Several months into an epidemic, the masses get tired of being scared and want to have fun again.
It turned out later, that keeping the masses scared for a long time does not really work.
The New Neander’s Medical on August 25, 2020:
COVID-19 anthropology. By now, people in most of the countries can NOT be considered as literate and in control of COVID-19. People want to have fun again and don’t care. Hypothesis: If it were a truly deadly epidemic, they’d behave in the same way several months in.
The 1927 model of an epidemic by W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick uses the correct term: “Susceptible”.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 22, 2020:
5/n The 1927 model of an epidemic by W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick uses the correct term: “Susceptible”. Not “immune” but susceptible. This the correct term to use. Good innate immunity and educated behavior make you non-susceptible to viruses.
A Test of Physiological Literacy: can people already infected with SARS-CoV-2 become susceptible again?
After having read through this mini-course in epidemiology, you can test yourself by answering this question: can people already infected with SARS-CoV-2 become susceptible again? If we use the figure above for SARS-CoV-2, can there be any people already infected with SARS-CoV-2 once in the “Susceptible” oval?
The New Neander’s Medical on July 23, 2020:
Anthropology, COVID-19: “The Evil Spirit” of COVID-19 did not disappeared. Those who have not been infected remain susceptible to different degrees. A majority of those who have been infected, seem to be protected. But we do not know for how long.
COVID-19 epidemiology. A test: R-effective = 1. A year later, how many new cases a day?
A claster of SARS-CoV-2 appears in a country. There are 10 new cases a day. The effective transmission rate (how many susceptible persons will be infected by one already infected person), R-effective = 1. A year later, how many new cases a day?
This is how people on social networks answered the test. What is your answer?
“Super-spreader events” is another way to scare those who don’t think on their own.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 27, 2020:
Anthropology and propaganda. COVID-19. “Super-spreader events” is another way to scare those who don’t think on their own. There is a limited number of ways SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted to a limited number of susceptible people. “Super-spreader” implies “magic”.
A seasonal drop in immunity makes a lot of people susceptible.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 27, 2020:
Authors from Switzerland and Sweden did a nice graph showing seasonality of the common coronaviruses. SARS-CoV-2 seems to follow the same pattern. This means that a seasonal drop in immunity makes a lot of people susceptible. Takeaway: Strengthening immunity is under your control.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 13, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. A solid effort by the University of Geneva, Zürich & EPFL in Switzerland. The lower graph shows the actual rate of virus transmission, “R-effective” here. If it is below 1, i.e. an infected person infects LESS than one susceptible person, the epidemic ends.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 7, 2020:
COVID-19 epidemiology. As lockdowns are relaxed, clusters of “susceptible” to SARS-CoV-2 become exposed to the virus and new cases go up. Remain careful, maintain strict hygiene, avoid people with symptoms.
“The Imperial College” is a propaganda outlet. That Fergusson fellow is basically a troll.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 7, 2020:
“The Imperial College” is a propaganda outlet. All their previous “models” for the previous epidemics were fakes and disinformation. That Fergusson fellow is basically a troll. For most of the viruses, only a minority of the population is susceptible to get infected.
The New Neander’s Medical on May 4, 2020:
Epidemiology of COVID-19. In the particular case of COVID-19 and in may other cases, there is no need of 70% of the population to be infected or vaccinated to get to a “herd immunity”. It appears that only 10-20% of the population are “susceptible” to get infected.
2/n There are flu epidemics each year. But many healthier people had a flu ten or more years ago. Why don’t they get infected each year? Because they are not “susceptible“. Hygiene, innate, and some adaptive immunity protect them. The same goes for COVID-19.
Selected references:
1. Fine. EpidemiologicReviews, 1993, Vol.15,No.2.